Kashmir and the new world order

The Kashmir dispute is irreversible in the sense that none of the four parties would abandon their stand. Out of the four, two are nuclear capable states. It is so difficult to make two hostile nuclear capable sit at the negotiating table and work out a solution which benefits two groups of Kashmiri people. But the emerging relationship among the US, the EU and Russia and possibility of China emerging as a semi-pole in the international affairs can make India and Pakistan work out their differences and arrive at a consensus.

The stability of the globe would depend on the two competition; between the US and Russia in the military matters and that between the US and the EU on technological innovations, particularly in the field of discovering an alternate fuel. In this process the West has to remain the most viable supra-national entity and the BRIC needs to fail in the nascent stage. In spite of the present White House administration offer of deploying limited missile in the Europe and that of developing joint missile shield with Russia, Russia should not opt for a cozy short term relationship with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Instead Russia should blindly invest in military technologies including those having the capacity to break National Missile Defense (NMD).

The West has to remain intact while the healthy USD-Euro competition has to continue. Together they represent two poles albeit not independent. The BRIC on the other hand should break at a very nascent stage because of selfish national interests. This failure of extra-regional alliances other than the West is mandatory to contain the American expansionism. The reversal of globalization in political matters may compel India to look inwards and the related deflation may force India to look for a solution to Kashmir dispute to the satisfaction of all the four parties.

A reversed world would be full of conflicts and might be dominated by technological denial regime as it can only come by the denial or fracture of GATT by non-Western world. When the world has come to age of conservatism then India and Pakistan may have internal reason to resolve the dispute; to struggle to keep united and start the regionalization of the South Asia.

Unless there are internal reasons India may not show inclination towards resolving the dispute because as of now and also in foreseeable future it can ignore external factors. The Indo-Pakistan relationship would thrive in not-so-interacting world.
In order to arrive at a solution a method can be worked out which satisfy all the parties and does not dilute the stakes of either India or Pakistan. For that a three stage referendum can be proposed; a pre-referendum, an actual referendum and a post-referendum. These referendums would be conditional. The pre-referendum would ask people to vote for a secular, peaceful and democratic Kashmir. The actual referendum would ask people to vote for political dualism and proportionate representation. The result of two referendums would automatically decide the fate of the future of the Kashmir.

All referendums should be interpreted as Kashmiris of both sides having no choice but to vote for integrated South Asian economy and a stable and prosperous South Asia. Should the people not vote for pre-referendum positively then the other two can be denied. Even in independent Kashmir Indian and Pakistani will at least maintain their present stakes and therefore, it will be limited sovereignty in independent Kashmir.

Such a solution will help India and Pakistan co-evolve and evolve in phase. The solution of Kashmir dispute would require the decoupling of Hindu-Moslem relations and calming down of the political heat. The decoupling means decoupling in religious and cultural sense and not in socio-economic sense. The decoupling would make the South Asian politics more stable and in India all the four centers; the center, the right, the left and the socialists would be in healthy equilibrium with each other.